NFL Top Plays Based on Betting Splits, Power Ratings and Trends – Week 14

[carlitosway]

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Steve Makinen and the VSiN Analytics team share the NFL betting trends you need to know for Week 14.

Today’s NFL Betting Trends:​

The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 14. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

AJ’s Angles​

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 41-15 SU and 35-21 ATS (62.5%) in the rematch contest
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-6.5 vs. CLE)
In Monday Night Football games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-26 SU but 15-36-2 ATS (29.4%) in the L53.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+5.5 vs. CIN)
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 44-70 SU but 65-44-5 ATS (59.6%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY JETS (+6 at MIA), ATLANTA (+5.5 at MIN)
SAN FRANCISCO is on 13-2 Over the total surge as home favorite of -3 to -7 points
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-SF (o/u at 44)
NEW ORLEANS’ Derek Carr is 5-11 SU and 1-14 ATS as a road favorite since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 at NYG)
Mac Jones (JAX) is 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS (7.1%) as an underdog of 7 points or less
Trend Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 at TEN)
DETROIT is on 17-9 SU and 20-6 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs. GB)
CINCINNATI is on an incredible 15-1 SU and ATS run as a road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-5.5 at DAL)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 58-14 SU and 47-23-2 ATS (67.1%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs. ATL)
Over the total is 8-0-1 in the last nine of the Las Vegas-Tampa Bay series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LVR-TB (o/u at 46.5)
#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections: NY GIANTS +4.5 vs. NO (+6.6 difference)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data​

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published in the 2024 NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2022 and 2023 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.
Here are the systems with updated language and records we will continue to track for the rest of the 2024 season.
NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two-plus seasons, when more than 65% of the handle has been on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group is just 130-139 ATS (48.3%). The number for this “super-majority” in college football was closer to 80%. The record for this year has been 34-28 ATS, including 21-9 ATS backing road teams. It’s hard to see this one continuing. We will continue to recommend that if you see 2/3 of the handle backing one side in an NFL game this season, it’s consistently profitable to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, MIAMI, CHICAGO, BUFFALO, LA CHARGERS, CINCINNATI
NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games of 2022-24, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 91-117 ATS (43.8%). With the obvious generality that public bettors love favorites, it’s clear that they don’t value the stakes of these rivalry games and what they mean for the competitors.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, PITTSBURGH, MIAMI, TENNESSEE, ARIZONA, LA CHARGERS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 96-114 ATS (45.7%), but 20-15 ATS in 2024.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, PITTSBURGH, MIAMI, TENNESSEE, SEATTLE, LA CHARGERS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conferences games of 2023 and 2024, DK majority number of bets groups have actually been quite sharp, as this majority group is 60-50 ATS (54.5%), performing at nearly the exact same level in each season. This is obviously quite the opposite performance level of #2 above, and unfortunately for bettors, there are two fewer non-conference tilts than divisional contests for each team on the schedule every year.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, BUFFALO, CINCINNATI
NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2022 season, when the majority number of bets has backed ROAD FAVORITES for an ATS wager, these majority groups are just 108-123 ATS (46.7%). I will tell you that there are only 15 games or less each year when this group will actually back the home dog. However, this system is 28-18 ATS for 2024, a major factor as to why bettors are doing well overall. I suspect if (or when) this turns, DK will regain the advantage.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NEW ORLEANS, BUFFALO, CINCINNATI
NFL DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority number of bets was on road underdogs for an ATS wager, these majority groups have actually produced adequate records, 71-65 ATS (52.2%) going back to September 2022. This matches up somewhat with the logic I used in explaining some college successes. When the public goes “against the grain,” they can do well.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): SEATTLE, CHICAGO, LA CHARGERS
NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle and number of bets have backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last two seasons, these majority groups are just 78-95 ATS (45.1%) and 76-94 ATS (44.7%) respectively. This set of games includes all the Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, LA CHARGERS, CINCINNATI
NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: In another rare winning record, when the majority of the handle has backed the team with fewer season wins in a 2022-24 NFL game for an ATS wager, this majority group is 69-56 ATS (55.2%). This has proven to be another situation in which going against the grain pays off.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY GIANTS, ATLANTA, LAS VEGAS, ARIZONA, CHICAGO, LA CHARGERS, CINCINNATI
The following are some new money line systems we will be employing going forward…
NFL DK Betting Splits system #10: Super majority handle bettors of more than 75% have also struggled in games when backing bigger favorites on money lines. In games with point spreads of -4.5 or higher (approx. -225 or more ML), this super majority group has gone just 23-13, but for -15.53 units of loss, an ROI of -43.1% in 2024. Public bettors tend to look at these games as more “automatic” wagers, and as you can tell, they aren’t.
System Matches (FADE ALL on ML): PITTSBURGH, PHILADELPHIA, TAMPA BAY, MIAMI, NEW ORLEANS, MINNESOTA
NFL DK Betting Splits system #11: Majority number of bets groups have been at their best in 2024 on money lines in the Sunday afternoon games when backing small favorites (4 points or less, and approximately -220 or less). These groups boast an impressive 33-10 record for +18.93 units of profit and an ROI of +44%! These include the games in the 1:00 p.m. – 4:30 p.m. ET starting slots, and with more choices at these times, bettors are faring well.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE ML, SAN FRANCISCO ML
These next systems cover totals…
NFL DK Betting Splits system #12: Since 2022, the average NFL total has been right around 44 or a tic higher. Since mid-2023, majority handle bettors have been very sharp in dealing with totals at or below that number (44 or less). In fact, since November 2023, these groups have gone 97-66 (59.5%)! It’s in the higher totaled games that they typically fare worse.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – JAX-TEN
UNDER – NO-NYG, CHI-SF, LAC-KC
NFL DK Betting Splits system #13: When 56% or more of the handle has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last two seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 70-52 ATS (57.4%). This number for a “super-majority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total. Incidentally, the same majority figure for the number of bets has also produced a 54-39 (58.1%) record.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): NO-NYG, ATL-MIN, SEA-ARI, LAC-KC
NFL DK Betting Splits system #14: Quite the opposite of #9, the magic mark for a super majority on the handle for betting Overs was 64% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2022-24 with a record of 121-153 (44.2%). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (INSTEAD PLAY UNDER ALL): GB-DET, CLE-PIT, LVR-TB, BUF-LAR, CIN-DAL

Team/Coach/QB Specific Situational NFL Betting Trends​

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:
(101) GREEN BAY at (102) DETROIT
* GREEN BAY is 22-11 ATS (66.7%) as an underdog since 2019
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur boasts an impressive record of 13-5 SU and 15-3 ATS as an underdog of +3 to +7 points since 2019
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on 11-4 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
Systems Match: PLAY GREEN BAY (+3 at DET), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 51.5)
* DETROIT is on 17-9 SU and 20-6 ATS run vs. teams with a winning record
* DETROIT’s Jared Goff is 13-5 SU and 14-4 ATS in divisional games since 2021
* DETROIT is 22-8 ATS (73.3%) at home since 2021
Systems Match: PLAY DETROIT (-3 vs GB)
(121) ATLANTA at (122) MINNESOTA
* ATLANTA is on 10-16 SU and 6-20 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
System Match: FADE ATLANTA (+5.5 at MIN)
* MINNESOTA boasts an impressive 79-55 SU and 85-48-1 ATS record when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2011
* MINNESOTA is 19-11 SU but only 8-22 ATS in its last 30 games as a home favorite
* MINNESOTA’s Sam Darnold is 25-9 Under the total when his team plays with normal rest (7 days) since 2019
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs ATL), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45.5)
(123) NEW ORLEANS at (124) NY GIANTS
* NEW ORLEANS is 35-21 ATS (62.5%) in road/neutral games since 2018
* NEW ORLEANS’ Derek Carr is 5-11 SU and 1-14 ATS as a road favorite since 2020
* Derek Carr (NO) is 22-33 SU and 20-33-2 ATS (37.7%) vs. NFC foes.
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADEs of NEW ORLEANS (-4.5 at NYG)
* NY GIANTS are 52-26 Under the total (66.7%) since 2020
* NY GIANTS are 23-4 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Brian Daboll is on 16-7 Under the total surge as single-digit underdog
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER the total in NO-NYG (o/u at 41)
(125) JACKSONVILLE at (126) TENNESSEE
* JACKSONVILLE is on horrific 4-40 SU and 11-33 ATS skid vs. teams with better records since 2011
* Mac Jones (JAX) is 0-14 SU and 1-13 ATS (7.1%) as an underdog of 7-points or less
* JACKSONVILLE’s Doug Pederson is 3-12 SU and ATS vs. poor defenses allowing >=27 PPG since 2016
* JACKSONVILLE’s Doug Pederson is 39-23 Over the total in road games since 2016
Systems Match: FADE JACKSONVILLE (+3.5 at TEN), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 39.5)
* TENNESSEE is on 7-23 SU and 7-22-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
System Match: FADE TENNESSEE (-3.5 vs. JAX)
(127) LAS VEGAS at (128) TAMPA BAY
* LAS VEGAS is 33-47 ATS (41.3%) when coming off SU loss since 2015
System Match: FADE LAS VEGAS (+6.5 at TB)
* TAMPA BAY’s Baker Mayfield is 11-8 SU but 5-14 ATS as a home favorite since 2020
System Match: FADE TAMPA BAY (-6.5 vs. LVR)
(129) CLEVELAND at (130) PITTSBURGH
* CLEVELAND’s Kevin Stefanski is 21-9 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
* CLEVELAND is 21-36 ATS (36.8%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Systems Match: FADE CLEVELAND (+6.5 at PIT), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 44)
* PITTSBURGH is 23-5 SU and 22-6 ATS coming off a game allowing 30+ points since 2013
* PITTSBURGH is 30-17 SU but 13-32 ATS vs. poor offenses scoring <19 PPG since 2011
* PITTSBURGH is 34-12 Under the total vs. poor teams with point differentials <=-4.5 PPG since 2013
* PITTSBURGH is 97-68 Under the total (58.8%) since 2015
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PITTSBURGH (-6.5 vs. CLE), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 44)
(131) CAROLINA at (132) PHILADELPHIA
* CAROLINA is on 1-13 SU and 2-12 ATS slide vs. elite teams with PPG differentials >=+4.5
* CAROLINA’s Bryce Young is 4-19 SU and 9-13 ATS in the last 22 starts as an underdog
* CAROLINA is 18-32 ATS (36%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
Systems Match: FADE CAROLINA (+12 at PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 9-3 SU but 1-10 ATS vs. poor teams being outscored by 4.5 PPG or more since 2022
* Jalen Hurts (PHI) is 21-3 SU and 14-9-1 ATS (60.9%) as a home favorite
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of PHILADELPHIA (-12 vs. CAR)
(133) NY JETS at (134) MIAMI
* NY JETS own ugly 11-44 SU and 17-36 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
* NY JETS are on 8-22 SU and 6-23 ATS skid when coming off an upset loss since 2011
* NY JETS’ Aaron Rodgers is 12-3 Under the total vs. teams with a better record since 2014
* NY JETS are 18-33 ATS (35.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
Systems Match: FADE NY JETS (+6 at MIA), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 45)
* MIAMI is on 30-16 SU and 30-15 ATS surge vs. teams with a losing record since 2019
* Tua Tagovailoa (MIA) is 23-8 SU and 21-10 ATS (67.7%) in home games
* MIAMI is 36-21 ATS (63.2%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Systems Match: PLAY MIAMI (-6 vs. NYJ)
(135) SEATTLE at (136) ARIZONA
* SEATTLE’s Geno Smith is just 11-12 SU and 7-15-1 ATS in his last 23 starts vs. teams with lesser records
* SEATTLE is 36-25 ATS (59%) as an underdog since 2016
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of SEATTLE (+3 at ARI)
* ARIZONA’s Kyler Murray is just 2-8 SU and ATS in his last 10 starts as a favorite
* ARIZONA is 25-29 ATS (46.3%) at home since 2018
* ARIZONA is 10-18 ATS (35.7%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
Systems Match: FADE ARIZONA (-3 vs. SEA)
(137) BUFFALO at (138) LA RAMS
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 33-19 Under the total on the road since 2018
System Match: PLAY UNDER in BUF-LAR (o/u at 49.5)
* LA RAMS are on 18-7 SU and 20-5 ATS December run since 2018
* LA RAMS are 12-18 ATS (40%) vs. non-conference foes since 2018
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 32-62 SU and 33-59 ATS vs. teams with winning records since 2011
* LA RAMS’s Matthew Stafford is 8-29 SU and 12-24 ATS as a home underdog since 2011
Systems Match: 1 PLAY, 3 FADEs of LA RAMS (+4.5 vs. BUF)
(139) CHICAGO at (140) SAN FRANCISCO
* CHICAGO is 27-44 ATS (38%) in road/neutral games since 2016
System Match: FADE CHICAGO (+4 at SF)
* SAN FRANCISCO is on 13-2 OVER the total surge as home favorite of -3 to -7 points
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Kyle Shanahan is 42-28 Over the total when his team is on normal rest (7 days) since 2017
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is just 7-7 SU and 3-11 ATS in his last 14 vs. teams with lesser records
Systems Match: FADE SAN FRANCISCO (-4 vs. CHI), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 44)
(141) LA CHARGERS at (142) KANSAS CITY
* LA CHARGERS are 61-30 Under the total when coming off an outright win since 2013
* LA CHARGERS are on 23-8 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 13-2 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
Systems Match: PLAY UNDER in LAC-KC (o/u at 42.5)
* KANSAS CITY is 72-38 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes boasts a 27-10 SU and 23-12 ATS record vs. teams with elite point differentials of >=+4.5 since 2019
Systems Match: PLAY KANSAS CITY (-4 vs. LAC), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 42.5)
(143) CINCINNATI at (144) DALLAS
* CINCINNATI is on incredible 15-1 SU and ATS run as road favorite of -3 to -7 points since 2015
* CINCINNATI is 53-64 SU but 71-43 ATS on the road dating back to 2011
* CINCINNATI is 70-56 SU and 77-49 ATS when playing on normal rest (7 days) since 2012
Systems Match: PLAY CINCINNATI (-5.5 at DAL)
* DALLAS is 24-7 SU and 22-9 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2020
System Match: PLAY DALLAS (+5.5 vs. CIN)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems​

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2024 detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Dave Canales (Carolina), Jerod Mayo (New England), Mike Macdonald (Seattle), Brian Callahan (Tennessee) as well as re-tread coaches Raheem Morris (Atlanta), Jim Harbaugh (LA Chargers), and Dan Quinn (Washington).
Rookie Coach Systems
(Games this week: JAX-TEN(-3.5), CAR(+12)-PHI, SEA(+2.5)-ARI)
– Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 159-181-10 ATS (46.8%). Road/Neutral games – 181-163-9 ATS (52.6%).
System Match (FADE): TENNESSEE
– Rookie head coaches have shown a tendency to start and finish their first season most successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2013, in games #1-#4 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 85-85-8 ATS, good for 50%. In games #5-#12, they’ve gone 163-178-11 ATS (47.8%). To close the season in games #13-#17, the record has been 92-82-2 ATS (52.9%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TENNESSEE, CAROLINA, SEATTLE
Retread Coach Systems
(Games this week: ATL(+5.5)-MIN, LAC(+4)-KC)
– There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2014, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a modest 79-80-1 ATS (49.7%) record in their first seasons. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 109-144-1 ATS (43.1%) in that same time span.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA
– Retread coaches have been solid in revenge scenarios over the last decade, going 24-20-3 ATS (54.5%) when having lost an earlier season game against an opponent. When having beat that team the first time around, these coaches have gone just 11-19-1 ATS (36.7%) in the rematch.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA CHARGERS

 

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NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems​

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie that started seven or more games in that first season. The lone rookie starter this week is Caleb Williams (Chicago).
(Game this week: CHI(+4)-SF)
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Rookie quarterbacks have struggled on the road, particularly late in the season
The results of rookie quarterbacks on the road lately are startling. Since the start of the 2013 season, rookie starters have combined for a record of 119-114-1 ATS (51.1%) in home games but just 101-122-2 ATS (45.3%) in road/neutral games. In later season road games, week 10-EOY, they are just 34-98 SU and 56-74-2 ATS (43.1%).
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, divisional and non-conference matchups have been tougher for rookie starting quarterbacks
Since 2018, rookie QB’s have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 49-58 SU but 62-44-1 ATS (58.5%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO
NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Losses have tended to snowball for rookie QB’s
In their last 150 starts with their teams coming off outright losses, rookie QB’s have gone just 51-108 SU and 71-85-3 ATS (45.5%). This trend dates back to 2018.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems​

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs of 28 different veteran QBs since 2003 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are three different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Aaron Rodgers (NY Jets), Russell Wilson (Pittsburgh), and Kirk Cousins (Atlanta).
(Games this week: CLE-PIT(-6.5), NYJ(+6)-MIA, ATL(+5.5)-MIN
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of December
I just showed how these veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, like should be expected, these QBs play best in the key month of December, when postseason berths are usually on the line, going 48-45 SU and 51-39-3 ATS (56.7%) since 2004.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH, NY JETS, ATLANTA
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 82-67 SU and 82-65-2 ATS (55.8%).
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA
NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – Veteran quarterbacks are consistent bets as sizeable underdogs with new teams
Dating back to 2006, veteran starting quarterbacks in their first seasons with new teams have gone 44-70 SU but 65-44-5 ATS (59.6%) when playing as underdogs of 3 points or more.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY JETS, ATLANTA

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems​

These NFL betting trend systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.
NO QUALIFYING EXTREME STATS SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

TNF, SNF, and MNF Team NFL Betting Trends and Systems​

The following NFL betting trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.
THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Road teams have done well, 35-41 SU and 42-32-2 ATS (56.8%) in the last 76.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+3 at DET)
· There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 24-22 SU but 15-29-2 ATS (34.1%). Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in weeks 9 and later are 42-25 SU and 40-25-2 ATS (61.5%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs. GB)
· A long-running trend of Thursday night home field advantage being crucial in divisional games has turned lately, with these hosts going 20-17 SU but 15-22 ATS (40.5%) since the start of the 2019 season. Prior to that, divisional hosts were on an amazing 17-2-1 ATS run.
System Match (FADE): DETROIT (-3 vs. GB)
· More on totals, there have been 31 TNF games since 2012 with a total of 50 or greater, they went Under at a 22-9 rate (71%).
System Match (PLAY UNDER): GB-DET (o/u at 51.5)
Good TNF Team Trends
Green Bay 7-4 SU and 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+3 at DET)
SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have gone the complete opposite direction, showing a record of 21-13 SU and 15-19 ATS (44.1%) in their last 34 after going 40-18-2 ATS prior.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): KANSAS CITY (-4 vs LAC)
· Home-field advantage has been big in divisional SNF games of late, with hosts owning a 18-12 SU and 17-12-1 ATS (58.6%) record since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-4 vs LAC)
· Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 14-21 SU and 14-20-1 ATS (41.2%) in their last 35, but those coming off a win are on a current 24-6 SU and 19-11 ATS (63.3%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-4 vs LAC)
· More on unusual stat angles, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 17-25 SU and 18-24 ATS (42.9%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019.
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+4 at KC)
Bad SNF Team Trends
LA Chargers 3-6 ATS skid
System Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+4 at KC)
OVER the total SNF Team Trends
Kansas City 15-7 Over since 2016, combined avg. 53.1 PPG
System Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-KC (o/u at 42.5)
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL
· NFL home underdogs on Monday Night are on a run of 13-14 SU and 15-11-1 ATS (57.7%) dating back to September 2021. The last 25 of these games have seen Under the total go 18-5-2 (78.3%) as well, games producing just 38.1 PPG.
Systems Match: PLAY DALLAS (+5.5 vs. CIN), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 49.5)
· In MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 27-26 SU but 15-36-2 ATS (29.4%) in the last 53.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+5.5 vs. CIN)
· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 38-34 SU but just 26-44-2 ATS (37.1%) in the last 72 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+5.5 vs. CIN)
Good MNF Team Trends
Dallas 7-3 SU and ATS in the last 10
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+5.5 vs. CIN)
UNDER the total MNF Team Trends
Cincinnati 5-3-1 Under in the last nine, scoring 19.3 PPG
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-DAL (o/u at 49.5)
If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:
Good PRIMETIME (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Dallas 13-7 ATS in the last 20
System Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+5.5 vs. CIN)
Green Bay 16-7 SU and 17-6 ATS in the last 23
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (+3 at DET)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors​

The following NFL betting trend systems were part of an article released in Week 8 of the 2023 NFL season focusing on winning and losing streaks. There were 15 different systems cited. These listed are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.
NFL Streaks Betting System #4: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-44 SU and 17-40-4 ATS (29.8%) in game #4 since 2003.
System Match (FADE): CAROLINA (+12 at PHI)
NFL Streaks Betting System #5: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright while outscoring opponents by fewer than 30 total points in that span have gone 58-14 SU and 47-23-2 ATS (67.1%) in the next game when favored.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-5.5 vs. ATL)
NFL Streaks Betting System #8: NFL teams that have lost their last five games ATS but were playing against a team whom they have at least an equal won-lost record with have gone 20-15 SU and 21-14 ATS (60%) in their last 35 tries.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-4 vs. LAC)
NFL Streaks Betting System #9: NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS are 22-63 SU but 52-31-2 ATS (62.7%) when playing as road dogs to non-divisional conference foes since 2003.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+5.5 at MIN)
NFL Streaks Betting System #12: NFL teams that have lost at least their last three games outright have gone 58-37 SU but 36-55-4 ATS (39.6%) when favored by 3 points or more since 2013.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-4 vs. CHI), CINCINNATI (-5.5 at DAL)
NFL Streaks Betting System #15: NFL teams playing at home on Thursday’s after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with a 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%) record in their last 16 tries.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs. GB)

Pre/Post-Bye Week NFL Betting Trends and Systems​

The following NFL betting trends and systems are from the long running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason
NO BYE-WEEK SYSTEMS THIS WEEK

Handicapping NFL Rematch Games​

The following NFL betting trends and betting systems come from same-season rematch data over the last 13 seasons
Best NFL rematch teams lately
– Detroit: 14-3 ATS run in rematches
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-3 vs GB)
Worst NFL rematch teams lately
– Arizona: 3-15 SU and 5-13 ATS skid in the last 18
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-2.5 vs. SEA)
– Cleveland: lengthy 9-27-1 ATS rematch skid in the last 37
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+6.5 at PIT)
Worst NFL HOME rematch teams lately
– Arizona: brutal 3-12 SU and 2-13 ATS home stretch
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-2.5 vs. SEA)
Worst NFL REVENGE teams lately
– Green Bay: 4-7 SU and ATS in the last 11 revenge attempts
Trend Match (FADE): GREEN BAY (+3 at DET)
High-scoring rematch teams
– Kansas City: 14-11 Over run
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAC-KC (o/u at 42.5)
Rematch Betting System
Teams that lost the prior game to an opponent but now have a record 20% or better outright have gone 41-15 SU and 35-21 ATS (62.5%) in the rematch contest.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-6.5 vs CLE)

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings​

The following NFL betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parenthesis).
This week’s Top 4 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NY JETS +6 (+1.2)
2. SEATTLE +3 (+1.0)
3. DALLAS +5.5 (+0.8)
4. NY GIANTS +4.5 (+0.1)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. TAMPA BAY -6.5 (+2.9)
2. PHILADELPHIA -12 (+2.6)
3. BUFFALO -3.5 (+1.3)
4(tie). DETROIT -3 (+1.0)
PITTSBURGH -6.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LA CHARGERS +4 (+2.7)
2. NY JETS +6 (+2.6)
3. CHICAGO +4 (+1.9)
4. CLEVELAND +6.5 (+1.1)
5. DALLAS +5.5 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NEW ORLEANS -4.5 (+1.8)
2. PHILADELPHIA -12 (+1.5)
3. TAMPA BAY -6.5 (+1.4)
4(tie). DETROIT -3 (+1.2)
MINNESOTA -5.5 (+1.2)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. JAX-TEN OVER 39.5 (+1.5)
2. CAR-PHI OVER 46 (+1.3)
3. LAC-KC OVER 42.5 (+1.1)
4. LVR-TB OVER 46.5 (+1.0)
5. SEA-ARI OVER 44.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. ATL-MIN UNDER 45.5 (-2.5)
2. NO-NYG UNDER 41 (-2.2)
3. CIN-DAL UNDER 49.5 (-1.7)
4. GB-DET UNDER 51.5 (-0.6)
5. CLE-PIT UNDER 44 (-0.5)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NY GIANTS +4.5 (+6.6)
2. NY JETS +6 (+4.0)
3. CLEVELAND +6.5 (+2.7)
4. ATLANTA +5.5 (+1.1)
5. LA RAMS +3.5 (+0.8)
This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. PHILADELPHIA -12 (+6.1)
2. SAN FRANCISCO -4 (+4.1)
3. CINCINNATI -5.5 (+3.6)
4. KANSAS CITY -4 (+2.9)
5. DETROIT -3 (+1.0)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. NYJ-MIA OVER 45 (+0.7)
2. NO-NYG OVER 41 (+0.5)
3(tie). SEA-ARI OVER 44.5 (+0.4)
LAC-KC OVER 42.5 (+0.4)
5. CIN-DAL OVER 49.5 (+0.3)
This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. CHI-SF UNDER 44 (-1.1)
2. GB-DET UNDER 51.5 (-1.0)
3. BUF-LAR UNDER 49.5 (-0.9)
4. CLE-PIT UNDER 44 (-0.7)
5. ATL-MIN UNDER 45.5 (-0.3)

Top Head-to-Head Series NFL Betting Trends​

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:
(101) GREEN BAY at (102) DETROIT
* Underdogs have won SU and ATS in the last three of the GB-DET series at Detroit
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY ATS
(121) ATLANTA at (122) MINNESOTA
* Underdogs are on a 5-1 ATS run in the ATL-MIN series
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA ATS
(137) BUFFALO at (138) LA RAMS
* BUFFALO is on a 4-0 ATS road run at Rams
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO ATS
(131) CAROLINA at (132) PHILADELPHIA
* Road underdogs have won the last three ATS in the CAR-PHI series
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA ATS
(139) CHICAGO at (140) SAN FRANCISCO
* Road teams and dogs are on a 5-2 ATS runs in the CHI-SF set
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO ATS
(129) CLEVELAND at (130) PITTSBURGH
* PITTSBURGH is 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 hosting Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH ATS
(125) JACKSONVILLE at (126) TENNESSEE
* Over the total is 10-3 in the last 13 of JAC-TEN series in Tennessee
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): JAX-TEN
(141) LA CHARGERS at (142) KANSAS CITY
* The last three games of the LAC-KC series in Kansas City went Under the total
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-KC
(127) LAS VEGAS at (128) TAMPA BAY
* Over the total is 8-0-1 in the last nine of the LVR-TB series
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LVR-TB
12/8/2024 (123) NEW ORLEANS at (124) NY GIANTS
* Under the total is 7-1-1 in the last nine of NO-NYG series in New York
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-NYG
(133) NY JETS at (134) MIAMI
* MIAMI is 5-1-2 ATS in the last eight hosting NY Jets
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI ATS
(135) SEATTLE at (136) ARIZONA
* Underdogs are 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine of the SEA-ARI series at Arizona
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE ATS
(143) CINCINNATI at (144) DALLAS
* DALLAS has won the last four ATS versus Cincinnati
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS ATS